The inclusion of model uncertainty : preliminary examination on how model uncertainties affect frequency lines for water levels
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|Toelichting (Engels)||The transition towards a new risk approach for the Dutch national safety assessment of primary flood defences has been taken as an opportunity to improve the dealings with uncertainties. The probabilistic models for the new safety assessment (WBI2017) not only deal with the natural variability, but also with so-called epistemological uncertainties. One class of epistemological uncertainties is the model uncertainty in the hydrodynamic models used. According to WBI2017 the model uncertainty related to water levels is included by considering the water level as an additional stochastic variable. The quantification of the water level uncertainty depends on the dominant hydraulic processes in each water system and is chosen to be independent of the return period. However, water level frequency lines derived including model uncertainty sometimes conflict with the physics. The main objective of this thesis is to analyse how model uncertainties affect the water level frequency lines in different fresh water systems in the Netherlands and to provide insights into different methods to deal with model uncertainties for the Dutch national safety assessments.|
Technische Universiteit Delft
HKV Lijn in Water