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Record number 2087837
Article title Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures
Author(s) Vliet, M. van ; Kok, K.
Journal title Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
Part(Year)Number 20(2015)1
Pages 43 - 74
Online full textINTERNET
Keyword(s) (cab) climatic change / water management / uncertainty analysis / methodology
Categories Climatic Change
Publication type Scientific article
Language English
About Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted within the context of exploratory scenarios that sketch four different plausible futures (Economy First, Policy Rules, Fortress Europe, and Sustainability Eventually). This paper has three objectives: (1) to present the methodology, focussing on its novel aspects (2) to test the methodology and evaluate its perceived success by analysing organiser and stakeholder feedback and (3) to analyse and evaluate the results, in order to study the impact of the exploratory scenarios on the backcasting results and the added value of robust actions. The methodology was successfully tested in 9 local and one regional case study in a water project water scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States (SCENES).
program Knowledge for Climate (KfC)
theme HS2 Hotspotoverstijgende thema's
project (Thema 7) Governance van adaptatie
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