In: Scenario studies for the rural environment; selected and edited proceedings of the symposium Scenario Studies for the Rural Environment, Wageningen, The Netherlands, 12-15 September 1994. Dordrecht etc., Kluwer, 1995. Environ. & Policy 5 / Schoute, J.F.T., Finke, P.A., Veeneklaas, F.R., Wolfert, H.P., - p. 391 - 403.
A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strategies in planning. In order to evaluate the ecological impact of the scenarios, a computer model (LEDESS), using a geographical information system, has been developed. The model is an expert system describing the development of vegetation and animal habitats in relation to abiotic conditions and management. It is a tool for policy making in planning rather than an accurate predictive model.
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