Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 319147
Title Simulated effect of pig-population density on epidemic size and choice of control strategy for Classical Swine Fever epidemics in The Netherlands
Author(s) Mangen, M.J.J.; Nielen, M.; Burrell, A.M.
Source Preventive Veterinary Medicine 56 (2002). - ISSN 0167-5877 - p. 141 - 163.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5877(02)00155-1
Department(s) Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group
Agrarische Bedrijfseconomie
MGS
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2002
Abstract We examined the importance of pig-population density in the area of an outbreak of classical swine fever (CSF) for the spread of the infection and the choice of control measures. A spatial, stochastic, dynamic epidemiological simulation model linked to a sector-level market-and-trade model for The Netherlands were used. Outbreaks in sparsely and densely populated areas were compared under four different control strategies and with two alternative trade assumptions. The obligatory control strategy required by current EU legislation was predicted to be enough to eradicate an epidemic starting in an area with sparse pig population. By contrast, additional control measures would be necessary if the outbreak began in an area with high pig density. The economic consequences of using preventive slaughter rather than emergency vaccination as an additional control measure depended strongly on the reactions of trading partners. Reducing the number of animal movements significantly reduced the size and length of epidemics in areas with high pig density. The phenomenon of carrier piglets was included in the model with realistic probabilities of infection by this route, but it made a negligible contribution to the spread of the infection.
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