Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 344077
Title Trendwatch combining expert opinion
Author(s) Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, M.A. van
Source Wageningen : Agrotechnology & Food Sciences Group (Rapport / Agrotechnology & Food Sciences Group 622) - ISBN 9085850118 - 31
Department(s) Operations Research and Logistics
LEI Consumer & behaviour
LEI Consument and Behaviour
AFSG Quality in Chains
LEI MARKT & K - Ketenprestaties
Publication type Research report
Publication year 2006
Keyword(s) opinies - deskundigen - bayesiaanse theorie - modellen - entropie - tendensen - gegevensanalyse - gevalsanalyse - opinions - experts - bayesian theory - models - entropy - trends - data analysis - case studies
Categories Communication Processes
Abstract In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is used to obtain parameter estimates. The approach is illustrated by two case studies. The results are promising, but the procedures are just a first step into an appropriate combination of expert combination, which has to be completed on important issues, such as the identification of some well-known biases.
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