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Record number 357323
Title Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry
Author(s) Boender, G.J.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Bouma, A.; Nodelijk, G.; Elbers, A.R.W.; Jong, M.C.M. de; Boven, R.M. van
Source PLoS Computational Biology 3 (2007)4. - ISSN 1553-734X
DOI https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030071
Department(s) ASG Infectieziekten
CIDC - Division Virology
Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology
WIAS
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2007
Keyword(s) classical swine-fever - 2001 uk foot - mouth-disease - neighborhood infections - great-britain - a virus - epidemic - transmission - netherlands - strategies
Abstract Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms
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