Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 361993
Title Spatial heternogeneity and the persistence of infectious diseases
Author(s) Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Donelly, C.A.; Ferguson, N.M.
Source Journal of Theoretical Biology 229 (2004)3. - ISSN 0022-5193 - p. 349 - 359.
Department(s) ASG Infectieziekten
ID - Infectieziekten
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2004
Keyword(s) stochastic epidemics - extinction times - community size - endemic period - metapopulation - dynamics - measles - models - transmission - duration
Abstract The endemic persistence of infectious diseases can often not be understood without taking into account the relevant heterogeneities of host mixing. Here, we consider spatial heterogeneity, defined as `patchiness¿ of the host population. After briefly reviewing how disease persistence is influenced by population size, reproduction number and infectious period, we explore its dependence on the level of spatial heterogeneity. Analysis and simulation of disease transmission in a symmetric meta-population suggest that disease persistence typically becomes worse as spatial heterogeneity increases, although local persistence optima can occur for infections with oscillatory population dynamics. We obtain insight into the dynamics that underlie the observed persistence patterns by studying the infection prevalence correlation between patches and by comparing full-model simulations to results obtained using simplified patch-level descriptions of the interplay between local extinctions and between-patch transmissions. The observed patterns are interpreted in terms of rescue effects for strong spatial heterogeneity and in terms of between-patch coherence and synchronization effects at intermediate and weak levels of heterogeneity.
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