Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 361994
Title Dynamics of a scrapie outbreak in a flock of Romanov sheep-estimation of transmission parameters
Author(s) Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Donelly, C.A.; Ferguson, N.M.; Anderson, R.M.
Source Epidemiology and Infection 131 (2003). - ISSN 0950-2688 - p. 1015 - 1022.
Department(s) ID - Infectieziekten
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2003
Keyword(s) population-dynamics - mathematical-model - great-britain - epidemiology - infection - disease - virus - uk
Abstract Knowledge of epidemiological mechanisms and parameters underlying scrapie transmission in sheep flocks remains very limited at present. Here we introduce a method for fitting stochastic transmission models to outbreak data to estimate bounds on key transmission parameters. We apply this method to data describing an outbreak of scrapie in a closed flock of Romanov sheep. The main findings are that the relative infectiousness of infected animals in this outbreak becomes appreciable early into disease incubation and that the mean incubation period is less than 1·5 years. We also find that the data are consistent with a broad range of values for the basic reproduction number R0 and describe how the boundaries of this range depend on assumptions about the mean incubation period and the contribution to transmission of a long-lived environmental reservoir of infectivity.
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