Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 367023
Title Spatial impacts of climate and market changes on agriculture in Europe
Author(s) Hermans, C.M.L.; Verhagen, A.; Vereijken, P.F.G.; Ewert, F.; Smit, H.; Metzger, M.J.; Naeff, H.S.D.; Verburg, R.W.; Woltjer, G.B.
Source Wageningen : Wageningen UR (Alterra-rapport 1697) - 75
Department(s) Landscape Centre
Agrosystems
PRI Biometris
Plant Production Systems
LEI NAT HULPB - Milieu, Natuur en Landschap
PE&RC
Publication type Research report
Publication year 2008
Keyword(s) klimaatverandering - landgebruik - landbouwgrond - europese unie - marktanalyse - landbouwproductie - modellen - voedselvoorziening - modelleren - scenario-analyse - climatic change - land use - agricultural land - european union - market analysis - agricultural production - models - food supply - modeling - scenario analysis
Categories Agricultural Systems / Climatic Change
Abstract Farmers and farming regions in the EU are increasingly concerned about whether they can remain competitive in a liberalising economy. Until now, climate change, which poses an additional stress to agriculture, is not included in recent assessment studies on the future competitiveness of the sector. In this atlas future changes in agricultural production and land use are projected considering combined effects of market and climate change. The study aims to identify regions in Europe that are likely to remain agricultural or that are likely to convert to other land uses. Two IPCC scenarios (global market with extensive fossil fuel use and regional markets) are considered for three time slices: 2005, 2020 and 2050. Two spatial boundaries are considered (Europe restricted to the EU-27 including Norway and Switzerland and Europe enlarged up to the Urals). The atlas focuses on the arable crops wheat and potato and on dairy farming. The assessment methodology includes three steps. 1) Calculation of the achievable food supply for wheat, potato and milk considering effects of climate change and technology development. 2) Calculation of the demand for wheat, potato and milk based on the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. 3) Adjustment of achievable supply to demand by adapting the area cultivated. This adjustment is based on the economic size of the farms used as competitiveness indicator. The results presented suggest spatial changes of agricultural production across EU-27 or EU-Ural
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