Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 400421
Title Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord pledges and its global climatic impacts‚ a snapshot of dissonant ambitions
Author(s) Rogelj, J.; Chen, C.; Nabel, J.; Macey, K.; Hare, W.; Schaeffer, M.; Markmann, K.; Höhne, N.; Krogh Anderson, K.; Meinshausen, M.
Source Environmental Research Letters 5 (2010)3. - ISSN 1748-9326
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034013
Department(s) Environmental Systems Analysis Group
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2010
Keyword(s) ocean acidification - gas emissions - stabilization - targets
Abstract This analysis of the Copenhagen Accord evaluates emission reduction pledges by individual countries against the Accord's climate-related objectives. Probabilistic estimates of the climatic consequences for a set of resulting multi-gas scenarios over the 21st century are calculated with a reduced complexity climate model, yielding global temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 and CO2-equivalent concentrations. Provisions for banked surplus emission allowances and credits from land use, land-use change and forestry are assessed and are shown to have the potential to lead to significant deterioration of the ambition levels implied by the pledges in 2020. This analysis demonstrates that the Copenhagen Accord and the pledges made under it represent a set of dissonant ambitions. The ambition level of the current pledges for 2020 and the lack of commonly agreed goals for 2050 place in peril the Accord's own ambition: to limit global warming to below 2 °C, and even more so for 1.5 °C, which is referenced in the Accord in association with potentially strengthening the long-term temperature goal in 2015. Due to the limited level of ambition by 2020, the ability to limit emissions afterwards to pathways consistent with either the 2 or 1.5 °C goal is likely to become less feasible
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