Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 406442
Title Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models
Author(s) Vliet, J. van; Bregt, A.K.; Hagen-Zanker, A.
Source Ecological Modelling 222 (2011)8. - ISSN 0304-3800 - p. 1367 - 1375.
Department(s) Laboratory of Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing
Centre Geo-information
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2011
Keyword(s) spatial simulation-models - validation - maps - landscape - cover - performance - skill
Abstract Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement between two categorical datasets corrected for the expected agreement. This expected agreement is based on a stochastic model of random allocation given the distribution of class sizes. However, when a model starts from an initial land-use map and makes changes to it, that stochastic model does not pose a meaningful reference level. This paper introduces KSimulation, a statistic that is identical in form to the Kappa statistic but instead applies a more appropriate stochastic model of random allocation of class transitions relative to the initial map. The new method is illustrated on a simple example and then the results of the Kappa statistic and KSimulation are compared using the results of a land-use model. It is found that only KSimulation truly tests models in their capacity to explain land-use changes over time, and unlike Kappa it does not inflate results for simulations where little change takes place over time.
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