Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 406676
Title Socioeconomics, policy, or climate change: what is driving vulnerability in southern Portugal?
Author(s) Manez Costa, M.A.; Moors, E.J.; Fraser, E.
Source Ecology and Society 16 (2011)1. - ISSN 1708-3087 - 23 p.
Department(s) CWC - Earth System Science and Climate Change
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2011
Keyword(s) water-resources - system dynamics - resilience - framework - drought - montado - regime - spain
Abstract Although climate change models project that communities in southern Europe may be exposed to increasing drought in coming years, relatively little is known about how socioeconomic factors will exacerbate or reduce this problem. We assess how socioeconomic and policy changes have affected drought vulnerability in the Alentejo region of southern Portugal, where EU agricultural policy and the construction of a major dam have resulted in a shift from a land-extensive mixed agricultural system to the intensive production of irrigated grapes and olives. Following a dynamic systems approach, we use both published socioeconomic data and stakeholder interviews to present a narrative account of how this transition has increased the region’s vulnerability to drought. To explore the assumptions made in the narrative, and to present different possible future scenarios, we create a dynamic systems model, the results of which suggest that socioeconomic drivers will play a more important role than projected rainfall changes in increasing vulnerability in the future.
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