Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 407358
Title Modelling BSE trend over time in Europe, a risk assessment perspective
Author(s) Ducrot, C.; Sala, C.; Ru, G.; Koeijer, A.A. de; Sheridan, H.; Saegerman, C.; Selhorst, T.; Arnold, M.; Polak, M.P.; Calavas, D.
Source European Journal of Epidemiology 25 (2010)6. - ISSN 0393-2990 - p. 411 - 419.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-010-9455-3
Department(s) CVI Diagnostics and Crisis
WIAS
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2010
Keyword(s) bovine spongiform encephalopathy - cohort analysis - great-britain - age-period - epidemic - cattle - transmission - switzerland - infection - dynamics
Abstract BSE is a zoonotic disease that caused the emergence of variant Creuzfeldt-Jakob disease in the mid 1990s. The trend of the BSE epidemic in seven European countries was assessed and compared, using Age-Period-Cohort and Reproduction Ratio modelling applied to surveillance data 2001-2007. A strong decline in BSE risk was observed for all countries that applied control measures during the 1990s, starting at different points in time in the different countries. Results were compared with the type and date of the BSE control measures implemented between 1990 and 2001 in each country. Results show that a ban on the feeding of meat and bone meal (MBM) to cattle alone was not sufficient to eliminate BSE. The fading out of the epidemic started shortly after the complementary measures targeted at controlling the risk in MBM. Given the long incubation period, it is still too early to estimate the additional effect of the ban on the feeding of animal protein to all farm animals that started in 2001. These results provide new insights in the risk assessment of BSE for cattle and Humans, which will especially be useful in the context of possible relaxing BSE surveillance and control measures.
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