Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 408190
Title Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years
Author(s) Patt, A.G.; Tadross, M.; Nussbaumer, P.; Asante, K.; Metzger, M.J.; Rafael, J.; Goujon, A.; Brundrit, G.
Source Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107 (2010)4. - ISSN 0027-8424 - p. 1333 - 1337.
Department(s) Landscape Centre
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2010
Keyword(s) natural disasters - adaptive capacity - adaptation - projections - impacts
Abstract When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.
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