Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 413142
Title A novel methodology for ex ante assessment of climate change adaptation strategies: examples from East Africa
Author(s) Stoorvogel, J.J.; Claessens, L.F.G.; Antle, J.M.; Thornton, P.K.; Herrero, M.
Source In: Book of Abstracts of the International Conference Crop Improvement, Ideotyping, and Modelling for African Cropping Systems under Climate Change - CIMAC, University of Hohenheim, Germany, 7-9- February 2011. - Stuttgart : University of Hohenheim - p. 29 - 29.
Event Stuttgart : University of Hohenheim International Conference Crop Improvement, Ideotyping, and Modelling for African Cropping Systems under Climate Change - CIMAC, University of Hohenheim, Germany, 2011-02-07/2011-02-09
Department(s) Land Dynamics
PE&RC
Publication type Abstract in scientific journal or proceedings
Publication year 2011
Abstract A novel methodology for ex ante assessment of climate change adaptation strategies: examples from East Africa JETSE STOORVOGEL3, LIEVEN CLAESSEN1, JOHN ANTLE2, PHILIP THORNTON4, MARIO HERRERO4 1 International Potato Center, Nairobi, Kenya 2 Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA 3 Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands 4 International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is predicted to experience considerable negativeimpacts of climate change. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report emphasizes that adaptation strategies are essential. Addressing adaptation in the context of small-scale, semi-subsistence agriculture raises special challenges. An important constraint is that data demands are high, because site-specific biophysical and economic data are required. The development of relatively simple methods for ex ante evaluation of adaptation at the household and system levels is therefore needed. We test a new approach to ex ante impact assessment that produces site-specific results that can also be aggregated for regional analysis. The methodology uses the kinds of data that are more often available in resource-poor countries. The stochastic approach integrates socioeconomic and bio-physical data on farmers’ land allocation, production, input and output use. Characteristics of the agricultural system regarding resources and productivity are analyzed and compared for both current and projected climate. Possible adaptation strategies are then assessed for their capability to reduce or offset the adverse effects of climate change. In this paper we apply the methodology to two study areas in Kenya. After characterizing the current systems with actual climate data, the effects of a perturbed climate are analyzed and a variety of adaptation strategies tested. Despite the limitations, the new approach offers a flexible framework for evaluating adaptation strategies using scarce data of resource-poor countries in SSA and other parts of the world. It allows a rapid integrative analysis for timely advice to policymakers and for exploration of technology and policy options. Keywords: adaptation, climate change, sweet potato, East Africa, impact assessment Contact: l.claessens@cgiar.org
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