Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 415107
Title Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM
Author(s) Kew, S.F.; Selten, F.M.; Lenderink, G.; Hazeleger, W.
Source Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15 (2011). - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 1157 - 1166.
Department(s) Meteorology and Air Quality
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2011
Keyword(s) klimaatverandering - neerslag - regen - meteorologische factoren - simulatiemodellen - toekomst - watersystemen - waterstand - rivieren - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - rijn - climatic change - precipitation - rain - meteorological factors - simulation models - future - water systems - water level - rivers - catchment hydrology - river rhine - regional climate model - storm track - simulations - europe - shift - temperature - netherlands - projections - scenarios
Categories Climatic Change / Meteorology (General) / Hydrology
Abstract Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series.
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