Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 416596
Title A discrete event modelling framework for simulation of long-term outcomes of sequential treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis
Author(s) Tran-Duy, A.; Boonen, A.; Laar, M.A.F.J.; Franke, A.C.; Severens, J.L.
Source Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases 70 (2011)12. - ISSN 0003-4967 - p. 2111 - 2118.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2011-200333
Department(s) Plant Production Systems
PE&RC
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2011
Keyword(s) tumor-necrosis-factor - nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug - asas consensus statement - placebo-controlled trial - metrology index basmi - cost-effectiveness - rheumatoid-arthritis - infliximab remicade(r) - united-kingdom - clinical-trial
Abstract Objective To develop a modelling framework which can simulate long-term quality of life, societal costs and cost-effectiveness as affected by sequential drug treatment strategies for ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods Discrete event simulation paradigm was selected for model development. Drug efficacy was modelled as changes in disease activity (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI)) and functional status (Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI)), which were linked to costs and health utility using statistical models fitted based on an observational AS cohort. Published clinical data were used to estimate drug efficacy and time to events. Two strategies were compared: (1) five available non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (strategy 1) and (2) same as strategy 1 plus two tumour necrosis factor a inhibitors (strategy 2). 13 000 patients were followed up individually until death. For probability sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 1000 sets of parameters sampled from the appropriate probability distributions. Results The models successfully generated valid data on treatments, BASDAI, BASFI, utility, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs at time points with intervals of 1–3 months during the simulation length of 70 years. Incremental cost per QALY gained in strategy 2 compared with strategy 1 was €35 186. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80 000, it was 99.9% certain that strategy 2 was cost-effective. Conclusions The modelling framework provides great flexibility to implement complex algorithms representing treatment selection, disease progression and changes in costs and utilities over time of patients with AS. Results obtained from the simulation are plausible
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