Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 421896
Title Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?
Author(s) Cormont, A.; Jochem, R.; Malinowska, A.H.; Verboom, J.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Opdam, P.F.M.
Source Ecological Modelling 227 (2012). - ISSN 0304-3800 - p. 72 - 81.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.003
Department(s) Landscape Centre
Land Use Planning
CL - Ecological Models and Monitoring
Laboratory of Entomology
CL - Ecological Networks
PE&RC
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Keyword(s) habitat fragmentation - extinction thresholds - british butterflies - extreme weather - change impacts - range margins - models - populations - landscapes - dynamics
Abstract The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. We cannot stop climate change, but it is within our circle of influence as ecologists to suggest landscape adaptation. Detailed population models that take into account climate change are considerably needed. We explore a detailed individual-based spatially explicit metapopulation model of a univoltine butterfly species where all processes are affected by daily weather, using historical daily weather data and future daily projections as input, in order to examine responses of a butterfly population in landscapes under various states of fragmentation and two climate change scenarios. This tool is used to investigate how landscapes could be adapted to compensate for possible negative impacts of climate change on population performance. We find that our model butterfly metapopulation was not only able to escape adverse conditions in summer by phenological shifts, but even to benefit from climatic warming. Varying either the amount of suitable habitat or patch size revealed a sharp threshold in population viability. In this particular case, however, the threshold was not affected by climate change and climate-dependent landscape adaptation was not required. The model presented here can be adapted for other species and applied to investigate scenarios for landscape adaptation
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