Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 423920
Title Propagation of Uncertainties in Soil and Pesticide Properties to Pesticide Leaching
Author(s) Berg, F. van den; Tiktak, A.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Burgers, S.L.G.E.; Brus, D.J.; Vries, F. de; Stolte, J.; Kroes, J.G.
Source Journal of Environmental Quality 41 (2012)1. - ISSN 0047-2425 - p. 253 - 261.
Department(s) CWC - Environmental Risk Assessment
Land Dynamics
Biometris (PPO/PRI)
SS - Soil Geography
Laboratory of Soil Science and Geology
CWC - Integrated Water Resources Management
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Keyword(s) spatial variability - water-flow - groundwater - model - degradation - vulnerability - framework - rates
Abstract In the new Dutch decision tree for the evaluation of pesticide leaching to groundwater, spatially distributed soil data are used by the GeoPEARL model to calculate the 90th percentile of the spatial cumulative distribution function of the leaching concentration in the area of potential usage (SP90). Until now it was not known to what extent uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties propagate to spatially aggregated parameters like the SP90. A study was performed to quantify the uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties and to analyze their contribution to the uncertainty in SP90. First, uncertainties in the soil and pesticide properties were quantified. Next, a regular grid sample of points covering the whole of the agricultural area in the Netherlands was randomly selected. At the grid nodes, realizations from the probability distributions of the uncertain inputs were generated and used as input to a Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation analysis. The analysis showed that the uncertainty concerning the SP90 is 10 times smaller than the uncertainty about the leaching concentration at individual point locations. The parameters that contribute most to the uncertainty about the SP90 are, however, the same as the parameters that contribute most to uncertainty about the leaching concentration at individual point locations (e.g., the transformation half-life in soil and the coefficient of sorption on organic matter). Taking uncertainties in soil and pesticide properties into account further leads to a systematic increase of the predicted SP90. The important implication for pesticide regulation is that the leaching concentration is systematically underestimated when these uncertainties are ignored.
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