Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 428967
Title Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms
Author(s) Ssematimba, A.; Hagenaars, T.H.J.; Jong, M. de
Source PLoS One 7 (2012)2. - ISSN 1932-6203
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0031114
Department(s) Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology
CVI Diagnostics and Crisis
WIAS
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Keyword(s) mouth-disease virus - swine-fever virus - livestock buildings - commercial poultry - airborne spread - great-britain - risk-factors - a virus - epidemic - foot
Abstract A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.
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