Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 430437
Title The use of Machine Learning techniques to predict farm size change: an implementation in the Dutch Dairy sector
Author(s) Oudendag, D.A.; Szlávik, Z.; Veen, H.B. van der
Source American Academic & Scholarly Research Journal 4 (2012)5. - ISSN 2162-321X
Department(s) LEI INT BELEID - Landbouwbeleid
LEI SECT & OND - Prestatie en Perspectief Agrosectoren
Publication type Non-refereed article in scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Abstract This paper investigates the use of several machine learning techniques in order to predict dairy farm size change in the Netherlands. The work presented is part of a larger effort to improve an agricultural model, called the Financial Economic Simulation (FES) model. The FES model simulates midterm financial economic development of farms, but until now it has not taken farm size change into account, which made it static, hence, sub-optimal when significant structural changes might occur in agriculture. In our work, we used data from the Dutch Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), covering the period between 2001 and 2009. After preprocessing the data, we built models using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Neural Networks (NN), and measured model performance at various prediction periods (looking ahead one to eight years in time). Our results show that the chosen methods are able to predict farm size change effectively, and that prediction quality is best when the aim is to predict farm size four years ahead, for which we also provide a likely explanation.
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