Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 430515
Title Adapting Towards Climate Change: A Bioeconomic Analysis of Winterwheat and Grain Maize
Author(s) Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.; Klein, T.; Calanca, P.; Walter, A.
Event International Association of Agricultural Economists>2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 2012-08-18/2012-08-24
Department(s) Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group
Publication type Contribution in proceedings
Publication year 2012
Abstract Climate change (CC) will alter the environmental conditions for crop growth. In order to minimize negative CC impacts on cropping systems, farmers will have to adapt their management schemes. In this paper we analyzed CC impacts and adaptation in winterwheat and grain maize production using a bio-economic modeling approach in two study regions of the Swiss Plateau, which differed in their climate and soil types. Considered adaptation options reflected the adjustment of farmers’ management decisions with regard to nitrogen and irrigation strategies. To this end, we integrated the process-based crop growth model CropSyst into an economic decision model that accounted not only for the profit margin but also for production risks and thus reflected a risk-averse farmer’s management decisions at field scale. Since the relations between a farmer’s utility and his management decisions in cropping systems are nonlinear and highly complex we used genetic algorithms (GAs) as optimization technique. By doing so, we optimized the farmer’s certainty equivalent (CE) at field scale under different climate scenarios. Our results showed that CC will foster the use of irrigation as management option in grain maize production. For winterwheat, however, irrigation did not represent an optimal solution even under a CC scenario assuming decreases in monthly precipitation sums up to 30%. Furthermore, CC reduced for both crops the optimal nitrogen fertilization amount. Taking such adaptation responses in crop management into account, negative CC impacts on farmers’ utility could be partially mitigated.
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