Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 430881
Title Greenland’s contribution to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century
Author(s) Graversen, R.G.; Drijfhout, S.; Hazeleger, W.; Wal, R. van der; Bintanja, R.; Helsen, M.
Source Climate Dynamics 37 (2011)7-8. - ISSN 0930-7575 - p. 1427 - 1442.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0918-8
Department(s) Meteorology and Air Quality
Alterra - Centre for Water and Climate
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2011
Keyword(s) antarctic ice sheets - model - climate - acceleration - variability - sensitivity - thickness - dynamics - retreat - waters
Abstract The Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise the global sea-level with ~ 7 m. Over the last few decades, observations manifest a substantial increase of the mass loss of this ice sheet. Both enhanced melting and increase of the dynamical discharge, associated with calving at the outlet-glacier fronts, are contributing to the mass imbalance. Using dynamical and thermodynamical ice-sheet models, and taking into account speed up of outlet glaciers, we estimate Greenland’s contribution to the 21st century global sea-level rise and the uncertainty of this estimate. Boundary fields of temperature and precipitation extracted from coupled climate-model projections used for the IPCC Forth Assessment Report, are applied to the ice-sheet models. We implement a simple parameterization for increased flow of outlet glaciers, which decreases the bias of the modeled present-day surface height. It also allows for taking into account the observed recent increase in dynamical discharge, and it can therefore be used for future projections associated with outlet-glacier speed up. Greenland contributes 1-14 cm to global sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century. This range includes the uncertainties in climate models projections, the uncertainty associated with scenarios of greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as the uncertainties in future outlet-glacier discharge. In addition, the range takes into account the uncertainty of the ice-sheet model and its boundary fields.
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