Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 434870
Title Nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the Black Sea in 1970–2050
Author(s) Strokal, M.; Kroeze, C.
Source Regional Environmental Change 13 (2013)1. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 179 - 192.
Department(s) Environmental Systems Analysis Group
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2013
Keyword(s) coastal zone - spatially explicit - danube river - global-model - nutrient - export - delivery - climate - waters - trends
Abstract Increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs are major causes of eutrophication in the coastal waters of the Black Sea. The objective of this study is to analyze the past and future trends in river export of nitrogen and phosphorus to the coastal waters of the Black Sea and to assess the associated potential for coastal eutrophication. The Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model was used for this purpose. Currently, most eutrophication occurs in the North Black Sea and the Azov Sea. In the future, however, this may change. We analyzed trends up to 2050 on the basis of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenarios. The results indicate that nutrient loads in rivers draining into the North Black Sea and the Azov Sea may decrease in the coming decades as a result of agricultural trends and environmental policy. However, in these scenarios, the targets of the Black Sea Convention are not met. In the South Black Sea, there is currently little eutrophication. But this may change because of increases in nutrient inputs from sewage in the future.
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