Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 437966
Title Host plant-mediated effects of climate change on the occurrence of the Alcon blue butter¿y (Phengaris alcon).
Author(s) Cormont, A.; Wieger Wamelink, G.W.; Jochem, R.; Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Wegman, R.M.A.
Source Ecological Modelling 250 (2013)2. - ISSN 0304-3800 - p. 329 - 337.
Department(s) Alterra - Earth informatics
Alterra - Biodiversity and policy
Laboratory of Entomology
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2013
Keyword(s) biotic interactions - species distributions - dispersal - conservation - landscapes - birds - biodiversity - temperature - viability - networks
Abstract Among the expected consequences of climate change are shifts in species’ ranges. Most of current methods to predict such shifts in species distributions consider changes in suitability of climatic conditions for existence. With these models, it is possible to indicate the potential distribution of species that would arise under spatial conditions that cause unlimited landscape accessibility and habitat suitability. At the regional scale, however, detailed predictions of changes in species distributions and performance are pivotal for conservation planning. This study aims to predict species occurrences at the regional scale, incorporating demographic processes and dispersal to assess habitat accessibility and suitability in detail. We investigated a system with trophic dependence: the Alcon blue butter¿y (Phengaris alcon) is fully dependent on the occurrence of its host plant species marsh gentian (Gentiana pneumonanthe). We applied a model chain, consisting of a soil and biomass model, a plant species occurrence and dispersal model and a butter¿y metapopulation model. We investigated the effect of future climate change, both under affected and unaffected habitat conditions as determined by host plant occurrence. Our modelled results show that the butter¿ies perform best when habitat conditions remain unaffected by climate change. However, when climate change does affect the occurrence of its host plant species, butter¿y distribution and performance will be deteriorated. This implies that detailed predictions of changes in species distributions and performance should incorporate dispersal, demographic processes and biotic interactions explicitly. Our approach allows for the identi¿cation of locations that are potentially suitable for the measures increasing network robustness for P. alcon.
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