Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 439833
Title Anticipating critical transitions
Author(s) Scheffer, M.; Carpenter, S.R.; Lenton, T.M.; Bascompte, J.; Brock, W.A.; Dakos, V.; Koppel, J. van de; Leemput, I.A. van de; Levin, A.; Nes, E.H. van; Pascual, M.; Vandermeer, J.
Source Science 338 (2012)6105. - ISSN 0036-8075 - p. 344 - 348.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1225244
Department(s) Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management
Resource Ecology
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Keyword(s) critical slowing-down - nonequilibrium phase-transitions - coordinated biological motion - early-warning signals - regime shifts - tipping-point - catastrophic shifts - ecosystems - resilience - systems
Abstract Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line of work is revealing fundamental architectural features that may cause ecological networks, financial markets, and other complex systems to have tipping points. Another field of research is uncovering generic empirical indicators of the proximity to such critical thresholds. Although sudden shifts in complex systems will inevitably continue to surprise us, work at the crossroads of these emerging fields offers new approaches for anticipating critical transitions.
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