Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 441282
Title Early Detection of Ecosystem Regime Shifts: A Multiple Method Evaluation for Management Application
Author(s) Lindegren, M.; Dakos, V.; Groger, J.P.; Gardmark, A.; Kornilovs, G.; Otto, S.A.; Mollmann, C.
Source PLoS One 7 (2012)7. - ISSN 1932-6203
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0038410
Department(s) Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2012
Keyword(s) central baltic sea - early-warning signals - catastrophic shifts - marine ecosystems - leading indicator - slowing-down - climate - dynamics - time - reorganization
Abstract Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.
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