Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 441619
Title Future European Temperature change uncertainties reduced by using land heat flux observations
Author(s) Stegehuis, A.I.; Teuling, A.J.; Ciais, P.; Vautard, R.; Jung, M.
Source Geophysical Research Letters 40 (2013)10. - ISSN 0094-8276 - p. 2242 - 2245.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/grl.50404
Department(s) Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2013
Keyword(s) climate-change - model
Abstract The variability of European summer climate is expected to increase in the next century due to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, likely resulting in more frequent and more extreme droughts and heatwaves. However, climate models diverge on the magnitude of these processes, due to land-surface coupling processes which are difficult to simulate, and poorly constrained by observations. Here we use gridded observation-based sensible heat fluxes to constrain climate change predictions from an ensemble of 15 regional climate models. Land heat flux observations suggest that temperature projections may be underestimated by up to 1¿K regionally in Central to Northern Europe, while slightly overestimated over the Mediterranean and Balkan regions. The use of observation-based heat flux data allows significant reductions in uncertainty as expressed by the model ensemble spread of temperature for the 2071–2100 period. Maximal reduction is obtained over France and the Balkan with values locally reaching 40%.
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