Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 441806
Title The simultaneous occurrence of surge and discharge extremes for the Rhine delta
Author(s) Kew, S.F.; Selten, F.M.; Lenderink, G.; Hazeleger, W.
Source Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 (2013). - ISSN 1561-8633 - p. 2017 - 2029.
Department(s) Earth System Science
Meteorology and Air Quality
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2013
Keyword(s) afvoer - hydrologie van stroomgebieden - hydrologie - rijn - klimaatverandering - discharge - catchment hydrology - hydrology - river rhine - climatic change - climate
Categories Hydrology
Abstract The low-lying Netherlands is at risk from multiple threats of sea level rise, storm surges and extreme river discharges. Should these occur simultaneously, a catastrophe will be at hand. Knowledge about the likelihood of simultaneous occurrence or the so-called "compound effect" of such threats is essential to provide guidance on legislation for dike heights, flood barrier design and water management in general. In this study, we explore the simultaneous threats of North Sea storm surges and extreme Rhine river discharge for the current and future climate in a large 17-member global climate model ensemble. We use a simple approach, taking proxies of north-northwesterly winds over the North Sea and multiple~day precipitation averaged over the Rhine basin for storm surge and discharge respectively, so that a sensitivity analysis is straightforward to apply. By investigating soft extremes, we circumvent the need to extrapolate the data and thereby permit the model's synoptic development of the extreme events to be inspected. Our principle finding based on the climate model data is that, for the current climate, the probability of extreme surge conditions following extreme 20-day precipitation sums is around 3 times higher than that estimated from treating extreme surge and discharge probabilities as independent, as previously assumed. For the future climate (2070–2100), the assumption of independence cannot be rejected, at least not for precipitation sums exceeding 7 days.
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