Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 451908
Title Bayesian Area-to-Point Kriging Using Expert Knowledge as Informative Priors
Author(s) Truong, N.P.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.
Source International Journal of applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 30 (2014). - ISSN 0303-2434 - p. 128 - 138.
Department(s) Soil Geography and Landscape
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2014
Keyword(s) probability-distributions - elicitation - opinion - deconvolution - geostatistics - models
Abstract Area-to-point (ATP) kriging is a common geostatistical framework to address the problem of spatial disaggregation or downscaling from block support observations (BSO) to point support (PoS) predictions for continuous variables. This approach requires that the PoS variogram is known. Without PoS observations, the parameters of the PoS variogram cannot be deterministically estimated from BSO, and as a result, the PoS variogram parameters are uncertain. In this research, we used Bayesian ATP conditional simulation to estimate the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge and BSO, and quantify uncertainty of the PoS variogram parameters and disaggregation outcomes. We first clarified that the nugget parameter of the PoS variogram cannot be estimated from only BSO. Next, we used statistical expert elicitation techniques to elicit the PoS variogram parameters from expert knowledge. These were used as informative priors in a Bayesian inference of the PoS variogram from BSO and implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. ATP conditional simulation was done to obtain stochastic simulations at point support. MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) atmospheric temperature profile data were used in an illustrative example . The outcomes from the Bayesian ATP inference for the Matérn variogram model parameters confirmed that the posterior distribution of the nugget parameter was effectively the same as its prior distribution; for the other parameters, the uncertainty was substantially decreased when BSO were introduced to the Bayesian ATP estimator. This confirmed that expert knowledge brought new information to infer the nugget effect at PoS while BSO only brought new information to infer the other parameters. Bayesian ATP conditional simulations provided a satisfactory way to quantify parameters and model uncertainty propagation through spatial disaggregation.
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