If the Netherlands, alongside Germany, France, Poland, and Hungary, decides to ban genetically modified (GM) soy in animal feed, the use of soy products in animal feed in these five countries will have to decrease by 40 to 50% to ensure that the EU demand for non-GM soy does not exceed the supply on the world market. The extra costs to Dutch livestock farmers over a period of 3 to 5 years as a result of the more expensive non-GM soy and alternative protein sources are estimated at between €60 and €100 million a year, with approximately 80% being borne by poultry farmers. Livestock numbers and productivity will then be maintained. A partial shift in trade flows from animal feed ingredients can be expected from import in the west of the EU - for example, through the port of Rotterdam - to intra-EU flows from production areas within the EU to consumers and via the waterway axis from regions east of the EU, such as Ukraine. Less soy will enter the EU via the Netherlands. This deficit can be offset by the increased demand for alternative protein sources, which will be partly imported from overseas. The effects on Dutch ports, the transport sector, and employment will depend on the nature of the trade flow shifts.
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