Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 494914
Title Tales of future weather
Author(s) Hazeleger, W.; Hurk, B.J.J.M. Van Den; Min, E.; Oldenborgh, G.J. Van; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.
Source Nature Climate Change 5 (2015)2. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 107 - 113.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450
Department(s) Meteorology and Air Quality
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2015
Abstract

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.

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