Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 496996
Title Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030 : Can emissions peak before 2030?
Author(s) Elzen, Michel den; Fekete, Hanna; Höhne, Niklas; Admiraal, Annemiek; Forsell, Nicklas; Hof, A.F.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Roelfsema, Mark; Soest, Heleen van
Source Energy Policy 89 (2016). - ISSN 0301-4215 - p. 224 - 236.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.11.030
Department(s) Environmental Systems Analysis Group
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Keyword(s) Climate agreement - National climate and energy policies - Renewable targets
Abstract

In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO2 emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO2 emission level consistent with a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO2. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO2e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO2e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO2e by 2030 - and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO2 emissions before 2030.

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