Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 498134
Title Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control : Objectives matter
Author(s) Probert, William J.M.; Shea, Katriona; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Runge, Michael C.; Carpenter, Tim E.; Dürr, Salome; Garner, M.G.; Harvey, Neil; Stevenson, Mark A.; Webb, Colleen T.; Werkman, Marleen; Tildesley, Michael J.; Ferrari, Matthew J.
Source Epidemics 15 (2016). - ISSN 1755-4365 - p. 10 - 19.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2015.11.002
Department(s) CVI Diagnostics and Crisis
CVI Bacteriology and Epidemiology
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Keyword(s) Decision making - Epidemiology - Foot-and-mouth disease - Management - Objectives - Optimisation
Abstract

Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be applied rapidly at the start of an outbreak when there are multiple stakeholders involved with potentially multiple objectives, and when there are also multiple disease models upon which to compare control actions. The output of our analysis frames subsequent discourse between policy-makers, modellers and other stakeholders, by highlighting areas of discord among different management objectives and also among different models used in the analysis. We illustrate this approach in the context of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in Cumbria, UK using outputs from five rigorously-studied simulation models of FMD spread. We present both relative rankings and relative performance of controls within each model and across a range of objectives. Results illustrate how control actions change across both the base metric used to measure management success and across the statistic used to rank control actions according to said metric. This work represents a first step towards reconciling the extensive modelling work on disease control problems with frameworks for structured decision making.

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