Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 498294
Title Projecting Global Biodiversity Indicators under Future Development Scenarios
Author(s) Visconti, Piero; Bakkenes, Michel; Baisero, Daniele; Brooks, Thomas; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Joppa, Lucas; Alkemade, Rob; Marco, Moreno Di; Santini, Luca; Hoffmann, Michael; Maiorano, Luigi; Pressey, Robert L.; Arponen, Anni; Boitani, Luigi; Reside, April E.; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Rondinini, Carlo
Source Conservation Letters 9 (2016)1. - ISSN 1755-263X - p. 5 - 13.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12159
Department(s) Environmental Systems Analysis Group
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Keyword(s) Biodiversity indicators - Biodiversity scenarios - Carnivores - Climate change - Extinction risk - Geometric Mean Abundance - Land-use change - Red List Index - Ungulates
Abstract

To address the ongoing global biodiversity crisis, governments have set strategic objectives and have adopted indicators to monitor progress toward their achievement. Projecting the likely impacts on biodiversity of different policy decisions allows decision makers to understand if and how these targets can be met. We projected trends in two widely used indicators of population abundance Geometric Mean Abundance, equivalent to the Living Planet Index and extinction risk (the Red List Index) under different climate and land-use change scenarios. Testing these on terrestrial carnivore and ungulate species, we found that both indicators decline steadily, and by 2050, under a Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, geometric mean population abundance declines by 18-35% while extinction risk increases for 8-23% of the species, depending on assumptions about species responses to climate change. BAU will therefore fail Convention on Biological Diversity target 12 of improving the conservation status of known threatened species. An alternative sustainable development scenario reduces both extinction risk and population losses compared with BAU and could lead to population increases. Our approach to model species responses to global changes brings the focus of scenarios directly to the species level, thus taking into account an additional dimension of biodiversity and paving the way for including stronger ecological foundations into future biodiversity scenario assessments.

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