Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 501600
Title Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe
Author(s) Stürck, Julia; Levers, Christian; Zanden, Emma Henriëtta van der; Schulp, Catharina Johanna Elizabeth; Verkerk, Pieter Johannes; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Helming, John; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Tabeau, Andrzej; Popp, Alexander; Schrammeijer, Elizabeth; Verburg, Peter
Source Regional Environmental Change 18 (2018)3. - ISSN 1436-3798 - p. 733 - 749.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0876-0
Department(s) LEI International Policy
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2018
Keyword(s) Ecosystem service - Europe - Land system - Land use change - Modeling - Scenario
Abstract

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

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