|Title||Projections of long-term food security with R&D driven technical change-A CGE analysis|
|Author(s)||Smeets Kristkova, Z.; Dijk, Michiel van; Meijl, H. van|
|Source||NJAS Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences (2016). - ISSN 1573-5214 - p. 39 - 51.|
LEI International Policy
|Publication type||Refereed Article in a scientific journal|
|Keyword(s)||Agricultural productivity - CGE model - D investments - Food security - Land-augmenting technical change - Magnet - Public agricultural R&|
In this paper, the impact of public R&D investment on agricultural productivity and long-term food security via R&D driven endogenous technical change is analysed. The findings show that R&D growth rates at the level reached in 2000s, particularly those for China, would not be expected any longer. Concerning the impact of projected R&D investments on agricultural productivity, it is found that endogenous growth rates of land-augmenting technical change are comparably lower than the standard exogenous rates used in long term projections of agri-food markets. This suggests that public R&D investments are not able to stimulate agricultural production to the levels that would be expected from the standard baseline outcomes.