Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 505703
Title Skill improvement of dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts
Author(s) Krikken, Folmer; Schmeits, Maurice; Vlot, Willem; Guemas, Virginie; Hazeleger, Wilco
Source Geophysical Research Letters 43 (2016)10. - ISSN 0094-8276 - p. 5124 - 5132.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068462
Department(s) Meteorology and Air Quality
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Keyword(s) Arctic sea ice - Bias correction - Ensemble calibration - Seasonal forecasting
Abstract

We explore the error and improve the skill of the outcome from dynamical seasonal Arctic sea ice reforecasts using different bias correction and ensemble calibration methods. These reforecasts consist of a five-member ensemble from 1979 to 2012 using the general circulation model EC-Earth. The raw model reforecasts show large biases in Arctic sea ice area, mainly due to a differently simulated seasonal cycle and long term trend compared to observations. This translates very quickly (1-3months) into large biases. We find that (heteroscedastic) extended logistic regressions are viable ensemble calibration methods, as the forecast skill is improved compared to standard bias correction methods. Analysis of regional skill of Arctic sea ice shows that the Northeast Passage and the Kara and Barents Sea are most predictable. These results show the importance of reducing model error and the potential for ensemble calibration in improving skill of seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice.

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