Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

    We have a manual that explains all the features 

Record number 507418
Title High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds
Author(s) Pitzer, Virginia E.; Aguas, Ricardo; Riley, Steven; Loeffen, Willie L.A.; Wood, James L.N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.
Source Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 13 (2016)119. - ISSN 1742-5689
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2016.0138
Department(s) CVI Virology
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Keyword(s) Influenza - Mathematical modelling - Surveillance - Swine - Transmission dynamics
Abstract

Pigs have long been hypothesized to play a central role in the emergence of novel human influenza A virus (IAV) strains, by serving as mixing vessels for mammalian and avian variants. However, the key issue of viral persistence in swine populations at different scales is ill understood. We address this gap using epidemiological models calibrated against seroprevalence data from Dutch finishing pigs to estimate the 'critical herd size' (CHS) for IAV persistence. We then examine the viral phylogenetic evidence for persistence by comparing human and swine IAV. Models suggest a CHS of approximately 3000 pigs above which influenza was likely to persist, i.e. orders of magnitude lower than persistence thresholds for IAV and other acute viruses in humans. At national and regional scales, we found much stronger empirical signatures of prolonged persistence of IAV in swine compared with human populations. These striking levels of persistence in small populations are driven by the high recruitment rate of susceptible piglets, and have significant implications for management of swine and for overall patterns of genetic diversity of IAV.

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