Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 508155
Title Carbon budgets and energy transition pathways
Author(s) Vuuren, Detlef P. Van; Soest, Heleen van; Riahi, Keywan; Clarke, Leon; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Tavoni, Massimo
Source Environmental Research Letters 11 (2016)7. - ISSN 1748-9326
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075002
Department(s) Earth System Science
Environmental Systems Analysis Group
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Keyword(s) Carbon budget - climate policy - integrated assessment - mitigation strategy
Abstract

Scenarios from integrated assessment models can provide insights into how carbon budgets relate to other policy-relevant indicators by including information on how fast and by how much emissions can be reduced. Such indicators include the peak year of global emissions, the decarbonisation rate and the deployment of low-carbon technology. Here, we show typical values for these indicators for different carbon budgets, using the recently compiled IPCC scenario database, and discuss how these vary as a function of non-CO2 forcing, energy use and policy delay. For carbon budgets of 2000 GtCO2 and less over the 2010-2100 period, supply of low carbon technologies needs to be scaled up massively from today's levels, unless energy use is relatively low. For the subgroup of scenarios with a budget below 1000 GtCO2 (consistent with >66% chance of limiting global warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels), the 2050 contribution of low-carbon technologies is generally around 50%-75%, compared to less than 20% today (range refers to the 10-90th interval of available data).

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