Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 510063
Title Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach : Advanced envelope-based climate model selection approach
Author(s) Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, Herbert W. ter; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.
Source International Journal of Climatology 36 (2016)12. - ISSN 0899-8418 - p. 3988 - 4005.
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4608
Department(s) Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2016
Abstract Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impact study. The selection of climate models is not straightforward and can be done by following different methods. Usually, the selection is either based on the entire range of changes in climatic variables as projected by the total ensemble of available climate models or on the skill of climate models to simulate past climate. The present study combines these approaches in a three-step sequential climate model selection procedure: (1) initial selection of climate models based on the range of projected changes in climatic means, (2) refined selection based on the range of projected changes in climatic extremes and (3) final selection based on the climate model skill to simulate past climate. This procedure is illustrated for a study area covering the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra river basins. Subsequently, the changes in climate between 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 are analysed, showing that the future climate projections in this area are highly uncertain but that changes are imminent.
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