Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 535805
Title Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections
Author(s) Melsen, Lieke A.; Addor, Nans; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew J.; Torfs, Paul J.J.F.; Clark, Martyn P.; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Adriaan J.
Source Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22 (2018)3. - ISSN 1027-5606 - p. 1775 - 1791.
Department(s) Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management
Wageningen Institute for Environment and Climate Research
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2018
Abstract Hydrologic projections are of vital socio-economic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning.
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