Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 536943
Title Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
Author(s) Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E.H.J.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Berg, Maarten van den; Harmsen, Mathijs; Boer, Harmen Sytze de; Bouwman, Lex F.; Daioglou, Vassilis; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Girod, Bastien; Kram, Tom; Lassaletta, Luis; Lucas, Paul L.; Meijl, Hans van; Müller, Christoph; Ruijven, Bas J. van; Sluis, Sietske van der; Tabeau, Andrzej
Source Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions 42 (2017). - ISSN 0959-3780 - p. 237 - 250.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.008
Department(s) LEI Programmamanagement
LEI International Policy
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2017
Keyword(s) Climate change research - Integrated assessment - Scenarios - Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - Sustainable development
Abstract

This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3 °C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5 °C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals.

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