Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 538373
Title Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe : Evaluation and effects on yield
Author(s) Ceglar, A.; Wijngaart, R. van der; Wit, A. de; Lecerf, R.; Boogaard, H.; Seguini, L.; Berg, M. van den; Toreti, A.; Zampieri, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Baruth, B.
Source Agricultural Systems 168 (2019). - ISSN 0308-521X - p. 168 - 180.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.05.002
Department(s) Alterra - Earth informatics
PE&RC
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2019
Keyword(s) Calibration - Crop yield forecasting - Europe - Phenology - Triticum aestivum - WOFOST
Abstract

This study describes and evaluates improvements to the MARS crop yield forecasting system (MCYFS) for winter soft wheat (Triticum aestivum) in Europe, based on the WOFOST crop simulation model, by introducing autumn sowing dates, realistic soil moisture initialization, adding vernalization requirements and photoperiodicity, and phenology calibration. Dataset of phenological observations complemented with regional cropping calendars across Europe is used. The calibration of thermal requirements for anthesis and maturity is done by pooling all available observations within European agro-environmental zones and minimizing an objective function that combines the differences between observed and simulated anthesis, maturity and harvest dates. Calibrated phenology results in substantial improvement in simulated dates of anthesis with respect to the original MCYFS simulations. The combined improvements to the system result in a physically more plausible spatial distribution of crop model indicators across Europe. Crop yield indicators point to better agreement with recorded national winter wheat yields with respect to the original MCYFS simulations, most pronounced in central, eastern and southern Europe. However, model skill remains low in large parts of western Europe, which may possibly be attributed to the impacts of wet conditions.

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