Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 539614
Title Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Author(s) Meijl, Hans Van; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Domínguez, Ignacio P.; Bodirsky, Benjamin L.; Dijk, Michiel van; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F.L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; Zeist, Willem J. van
Source Environmental Research Letters 13 (2018)6. - ISSN 1748-9318
DOI https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4
Department(s) LEI International Policy
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2018
Keyword(s) adaptation - agriculture - climate change - economic models - mitigation - shared socioeconomic pathways
Abstract

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

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