Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 539709
Title Modelling the present and futurewater level and discharge of the tidal betna river
Author(s) Islam, M.M.M.; Hofstra, Nynke; Sokolova, Ekaterina
Source Geosciences 8 (2018)8. - ISSN 2076-3263
DOI https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080271
Department(s) Environmental Systems Analysis Group
WIMEK
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2018
Keyword(s) Discharge - Flood - General circulation models (GCM) - MIKE 21 FM model - Precipitation - Water level
Abstract

Climate change, comprising of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures and sea level rises, increases the likelihood of future flooding in the Betna River basin, Bangladesh. Hydrodynamic modellingwas performed to simulate the present and future water level and discharge for different scenarios using bias-corrected, downscaled data from two general circulation models. The modelling results indicated that, compared to the baseline year (2014–2015), the water level is expected to increase by 11–16% by the 2040s and 14–23% by the 2090s, and the monsoon daily maximum discharge is expected to increase by up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. Sea level rise is mostly responsible for the increase in water level. The duration of water level exceedance of the established danger threshold and extreme discharge events can increase by up to half a month by the 2040s and above one month by the 2090s. The combined influence of the increased water level and discharge has the potential to cause major floods in the Betna River basin. The results of our study increase the knowledge base on climate change influence on water level and discharge at a local scale. This is valuable for water managers in flood-risk mitigation and water management.

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