|Title||Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy|
|Author(s)||Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Fellmann, Thomas; Kyle, Page; Koopman, Jason F.L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Ochi, Yuki; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Tabeau, Andrzej; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Takakura, J.; Meijl, Hans van; Zeist, Willem Jan van; Wiebe, Keith; Witzke, Peter|
|Source||Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)8. - ISSN 1758-678X - p. 699 - 703.|
LEI International Policy
|Publication type||Refereed Article in a scientific journal|
Food insecurity can be directly exacerbated by climate change due to crop-production-related impacts of warmer and drier conditions that are expected in important agricultural regions1–3. However, efforts to mitigate climate change through comprehensive, economy-wide GHG emissions reductions may also negatively affect food security, due to indirect impacts on prices and supplies of key agricultural commodities4–6. Here we conduct a multiple model assessment on the combined effects of climate change and climate mitigation efforts on agricultural commodity prices, dietary energy availability and the population at risk of hunger. A robust finding is that by 2050, stringent climate mitigation policy, if implemented evenly across all sectors and regions, would have a greater negative impact on global hunger and food consumption than the direct impacts of climate change. The negative impacts would be most prevalent in vulnerable, low-income regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where food security problems are already acute.