Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 541491
Title A Global Analysis of Future Water Deficit Based On Different Allocation Mechanisms
Author(s) Bijl, David L.; Biemans, Hester; Bogaart, Patrick W.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Stehfest, Elke; Vuuren, Detlef P. van
Source Water Resources Research 54 (2018)8. - ISSN 0043-1397 - p. 5803 - 5824.
DOI https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021688
Department(s) Water and Food
Alterra - Climate change and adaptive land and water management
LEI International Policy
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 2018
Keyword(s) integrated assessment model - irrigation - socioeconomic development - water demand - water scarcity - water-food-energy nexus
Abstract

Freshwater scarcity is already an urgent problem in some areas but may increase significantly in the future. To assess future developments, we need to understand how future population growth, agricultural production patterns, energy use, economic development, and climate change may impact the global freshwater cycle. Integrated models provide opportunities for quantitative assessment. In this paper, we further integrate models of hydrology and economics, using the models IMAGE and LPJmL, with explicit accounting for (1) electricity, industry, and municipal and irrigation water use; (2) intersectoral water allocation rules at the 0.5° × 0.5°grid scale; and (3) withdrawal, consumption, and return flows. With the integration between hydrology and economy we are able to understand competition dynamics between the different freshwater users at the basin and grid scale. We run model projections for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), more efficient water use, and no expansion of irrigated areas to understand the competition dynamics of these different allocation mechanisms. We conclude that (1) global water withdrawal is projected to increase by 12% in SSP-1, 26% in SSP-2, and 29% in SSP-3 during 2010–2050; (2) water deficits (demand minus allocated water) for nonagricultural uses are small in 2010 but become significant around 2050; (3) interannual variability of precipitation results in variability of water deficits; (4) water use efficiency improvements reduce water withdrawal but have little impact on water deficits; and (5) priority rules at the local level have a large effect on water deficits, whereas limiting the expansion of irrigation has virtually no effect.

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