Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 63457
Title A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use
Author(s) Verburg, P.H.; Koning, G.H.J. de; Kok, K.; Veldkamp, A.; Bouma, J.
Source Ecological Modelling 116 (1999). - ISSN 0304-3800 - p. 45 - 61.
Department(s) Agronomy
Laboratory of Soil Science and Geology
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 1999
Keyword(s) landgebruik - ruimtelijke variatie - modellen - geografische informatiesystemen - land use - spatial variation - models - geographical information systems
Categories Physical Planning (General)
Abstract Modelling of land use changes as a function of its biophysical and socio-economic driving forces provides insights into the extent and location of land use changes and its effects. The CLUE modelling framework is a methodology to model near future land use changes based upon actual and past land use conditions. This paper describes how changes in land use are allocated in the model. A statistical analysis of the quantitative relationships between the actual land use distribution and (potential) driving forces or proxies of these forces underlies the allocation procedure. Based upon thus derived multiple regression equations, areas with potential for increase or decrease in cover percentage of a certain land use type are identified. Actual allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land use types. A multi-scale approach is followed to account for the scale dependencies of driving factors of land use change. This approach provides a balance between bottom-up effects as result of local conditions and top-down effects as result of changes at national and regional scales. The modelling approach is illustrated with examples of scenario simulations of land use change in Ecuador.
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