Staff Publications

Staff Publications

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    'Staff publications' is the digital repository of Wageningen University & Research

    'Staff publications' contains references to publications authored by Wageningen University staff from 1976 onward.

    Publications authored by the staff of the Research Institutes are available from 1995 onwards.

    Full text documents are added when available. The database is updated daily and currently holds about 240,000 items, of which 72,000 in open access.

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Record number 63607
Title Prediction of weed density : the increase of error with prediction interval, and the use of long-term prediction for weed management
Author(s) Wallinga, J.; Grasman, J.; Groeneveld, R.M.W.; Kropff, M.J.; Lotz, L.A.P.
Source Journal of Applied Ecology 36 (1999). - ISSN 0021-8901 - p. 307 - 316.
Department(s) Theoretical Production Ecology
Biometris (WU MAT)
Plant Research International
Publication type Refereed Article in a scientific journal
Publication year 1999
Abstract 1. This paper addresses the errors that are associated with the long-term prediction of weed densities, and the effect of these errors on the performance of weed management decisions based on those long-term predictions. 2. A model of weed population dynamics was constructed and its parameters were estimated from experimental observations of population dynamics of the weed species Stellaria media in a crop rotation. 3. The observations showed that estimates of weed population growth rate differed between two locations. 4. The model was used to analyse error propagation for predicted weed densities in an enlarged prediction interval. It is concluded that errors due to an uncertain population growth rate increase linearly with the length of the prediction interval, and thus pose an upper limit to the horizon for long-term predictions. 5. It is shown that a limited ability to predict weed densities does not necessarily impair the practical use of weed population dynamic models in planning for long-term weed control programmes.
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